Evaluation of Road Traffic Accident Risk Based on Fuzzy Set Theory

In this study, the risk for road traffic accidents on Ubungo – Chalinze route (Tanzania) is comprehensively evaluated and analysed using fuzzy techniques. After identifying the main risk factors for road traffic accidents, the experts’ judgements are used to establish each single factor evaluation fuzzy set. Eventually, the single factor evaluation matrix is multiplied by the risk factor weight set to get fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The computational results reveal that the road traffic accident risk along the route from Ubungo to Chalinze is high. Thus, the evaluation model can be a useful tool for making informed decisions for road transport safety regulators and policy makers, road transport users and underwriters of public liability and motor insurance policies when setting insurance premiums and reserves. In addition, the proposed risk evaluation model offer theoretical foundation for risk evaluation along other routes. Keywords—Comprehensive Evaluation, Fuzzy Set, Risk Factor, Risk Model, Road Traffic Accidents.